原創翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.ternionm.com 翻譯:碧波蕩漾恒河水 轉載請注明出處



Ever since PM Modi came to office, his government has prioritised social reengineering over economic growth. Look where that led us.

自從莫迪總理上臺以來,他的政府將社會改革置于經濟增長之上??纯催@種做法把我們帶到了哪里。

While most world capitals have been waiting for significant economic reforms since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election to office in 2014, his government has prioritised social reengineering over economic growth in India.

自2014年印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪當選以來,世界上大多數國家的首都一直在期待重大的經濟改革,但他領導的政府卻將社會改革置于經濟增長之上。

Putting vote-getting religious sentiments above economic and strategic goals has diminished the enthusiasm with which other countries support Indian foreign policy.

把贏得選票的宗教情緒置于經濟和戰略目標之上,削弱了其他國家支持印度外交政策的熱情。

And as a result of lacklustre economic policies, India’s rate of growth has declined to 4.5 per cent. What was once described as the fastest growing economy in the world, is now in its worst phase in 42 years.

由于缺乏經濟政策,印度的經濟增長率已降至4.5%。這個一度被形容為全球增長最快的經濟體,如今正處于42年來最糟糕的階段。



In 2015-16, India’s GDP stood at US$ 1.99 trillion and it had a labour force of 860 million people. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund predicted that India’s economy would grow between 7.3-7.5 per cent over the next two years. The World Bank even asserted that a “resilient” India would help drive economic growth in South Asia. But now India’s eastern neighbour, Bangladesh, has become the fastest-growing economy in the region.

2015- 2016年,印度國內生產總值為1.99萬億美元,勞動人口8.6億。世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織都預測,未來兩年印度經濟增長率將達到7.3%至7.5%。世界銀行甚至宣稱,一個“有彈性”的印度將有助于推動南亞的經濟增長。但現在,印度的東部鄰國孟加拉國卻成為該地區增長最快的經濟體。

And the latest Budget offers little hope of reviving India’s stagnant economy.

而最新的預算也讓印度停滯不前的經濟復蘇希望渺茫。

Social slide

社會滑坡

The lack of focus on economic growth over the last several years can be traced to an over-emphasis on socio-cultural issues and majoritarian politics.

過去幾年對經濟增長缺乏關注的情況,可以追溯到過分強調社會文化問題和多數主義政治。

For instance, the Modi government’s launch of a programme to encourage foreign investment in India in February 2016 was overshadowed by the arrest of students from one of India’s top universities, the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), on grounds of sedition. The narrative that emerged was that the Modi government was using a colonial-era law against university students while asking Indian and foreign corporates to bring state of the art technology and skills to India.

例如,2016年2月,莫迪政府啟動了一項鼓勵外國投資印度的計劃,但由于政府以煽動叛亂為由,逮捕了賈瓦哈拉爾·尼赫魯大學(印度頂尖大學之一)的學生,使該計劃蒙上了陰影。后來出現的說法是,莫迪政府利用殖民時代的法律對付大學生,同時要求印度和外國公司把先進的技術和技能帶到印度。

It is difficult to convince investors of a government’s promises about capitalist freedom when it is accompanied by visible repression. For years, India’s greatest strength globally was its reputation as a secular, inclusive, and pluralist democracy. India’s socialist economic frxwork did not attract capital, and the consensus among economists was that the country needed free markets alongside its political and cultural freedoms.

當一個政府對資本主義自由所做的承諾,伴隨著明顯的壓制時,投資者會很難相信這種承諾。多年來,印度在全球最大的優勢是其世俗、包容和多元化民主的聲譽。印度的社會主義經濟框架不曾吸引資本,而且經濟學家的共識是,除了政治和文化自由,印度還需要自由市場。

Starting in late 2014, there has been a steady decline in India’s reputation for tolerance. Attacks on religious minorities, especially Muslims, including lynchings tied to the demands of a ban on cow slaughter and beef consumption, do not bring investment. And neither do attempts to ‘re-convert’ Muslims and Christians to Hinduism through ghar wapsi (‘return to the fold’).

從2014年年底開始,印度寬容的聲譽穩步下滑。對宗教少數民族,尤其是穆斯林的攻擊,包括與禁止屠宰牛和食用牛肉相關的私刑,并沒有帶來投資。試圖通過ghar wapsi(“回歸宗教”)運動,讓穆斯林和基督徒“重新皈依”印度教的企圖也是如此。

Illiberal majoritarianism coupled with an unwillingness to dismantle controls that have limited India’s growth are probably the reasons why India is performing below expectations in the economic realm.

狹隘的多數主義,加上不愿取消限制印度增長的管制,可能是印度經濟表現低于預期的原因。

China’s rise

?中國的崛起



The Modi government’s decisions on Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) are positive steps, but their impact so far is small. A lot needs to be done to improve India’s British-era infrastructure (rail, road, air, and ports), or accessibility to basic amenities like electricity and water.

莫迪政府就商品和服務稅(GST)以及倒閉破產法(IBC)所做的決定是積極的步驟,但迄今為止,它們的影響很小。印度需要采取很多措施來改善其英國時代的基礎設施(鐵路、公路、航空和港口),或者改善基本設施如電力和水的可達性。

None of these can be accomplished through culture wars. Businesses seek countries with secure tax regimes and political and social steadiness. But India’s complex and confusing taxation structures, the presence of retroactive taxation, and the government’s punitive approach to businesspeople have created an environment of fear within the business community.

這些都不能通過文化戰爭來實現。企業尋求的是稅收制度安全、政治和社會穩定的國家。但印度復雜而令人困惑的稅收結構、追溯征稅的存在,以及政府對商人的懲罰方式,在商界造成了一種恐懼的環境。

At a time when many US firms are moving out of China, India’s policy should focus on wooing these investors, improving ease of business, and offering incentives.

在許多美國公司紛紛撤離中國之際,印度的政策應該集中在吸引這些投資者、改善經營環境、提供激勵措施上。

Instead, xenophobia, hyper-nationalism, and a desire for absolute political control seem to be pushing those who have already invested in India away. And the BJP government has been more protectionist than even its predecessors.

相反,仇外、極端民族主義和對絕對政治控制的渴望,似乎正在把那些已經在印度投資的人趕走。而且人民黨政府的貿易保護主義甚至比它的前任更加嚴重。

Moreover, India’s friends and rivals will take New Delhi seriously when they see India investing more on defence and security. But instead of spending more on defence, India has been spending less. This year’s defence budget (excluding pensions) stands at only 1.5 per cent of the GDP.

此外,如果印度的朋友和競爭對手看到印度在國防和安全上投入更多資金,他們會認真對待新德里。但印度并沒有增加國防開支,而是減少了開支。今年的國防預算(不包括養老金)僅占GDP的1.5%。

Some apologists have blamed India’s bureaucracy, the ‘babus’, for India’s current economic mess and the lack of reforms. But the same bureaucracy had effectively implemented the 1991 reforms when commanded by the political leadership of the time to do so. The ‘babus’ would have gladly done the same under instructions from their current political masters.

一些辯護者將印度當前的經濟混亂和缺乏改革歸咎于印度官僚機構的“先生們”。但在當時的政治領導層的指揮下,這個官僚機構有效地實施了1991年的改革。在當前的政治領導人的指示下,這些“先生們”會很樂意做同樣的事情。

Given its focus on social and cultural issues, the Modi government does not seem to have the desire to significantly change the way India does business. Instead of shifting blame away from the political leadership, honesty demands recognition of the incompatibility of the current leadership’s social agenda and India’s economic and strategic aspirations.

鑒于其對社會和文化問題的關注,莫迪政府似乎不希望印度做生意的方式做出顯著改變。我不會把責任推卸給政治領導層,而是真誠的希望他們認識到:當前領導層的社會議程與印度的經濟和戰略抱負并不相容。