UK set for record-breaking economic growth in third quarter

英國準備第三季度實現破紀錄的經濟增長



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Britain appears to be on course to enjoy a record-breaking economic recovery in the third quarter, fuelled by consumers who are spending again after the coronavirus lockdown and a planned reopening of schools.

在疫情解封后消費者重新開始消費,以及學校計劃重新開放的推動下,英國第三季度似乎正在迎接破紀錄的經濟復蘇。

Although the UK economy has been hit hard during the pandemic — it recorded the sharpest fall in gross domestic product in the second quarter compared with the last three months of 2019 of any G7 nation — new data on spending suggest many Britons are splashing the cash once more.

盡管英國經濟在疫情期間受到重創(今年第二季度,英國GDP較2019年第四季度的降幅,是七國集團中最大的),但新的消費數據顯示,許多英國人又開始大把花錢了。


A new average of forecasts by City of London economists suggests that GDP is set to rise 14.3 per cent in the third quarter, reversing 55 per cent of the 20.4 per cent drop in output in the three months to June 30.

倫敦金融城經濟學家最新的平均預測顯示,第三季度GDP準備增長14.3%,扭轉了截至6月30日的第二季度產出下降20.4%的局面,環比增幅為55%。


But the trajectory of the economy after this bounce is much more difficult to predict, said independent forecasters, with a lot depending on the spread of Covid-19, the quantum of social distancing measures, and whether consumers rein in their spending amid rising unemployment and a possible second wave of infections. These factors are heavily interlixed, added the economists.

但獨立預測人士說,這次反彈后的經濟軌跡更加難以預測,這在很大程度上取決于疫情的傳播情況、社交距離措施的規模,以及在失業率上升和可能出現第二波感染的情況下,消費者是否會控制支出。這些經濟學家補充說,這些因素在很大程度上是相互關聯的。

Recommended Why the UK economy stands out Consumer spending initially recovered relatively slowly in the UK compared to elsewhere in Europe. The shutdown of most shops, restaurants and pubs had to be kept in place longer to counter higher infection rates in Britain, but the relaxation of restrictions in June and July has brought a big change in spending patterns.

與歐洲其他地方相比,英國的消費支出最初復蘇相對緩慢。在英國,大多數商店、餐館和酒吧的關閉時間不得不延長,以應對更高的感染率,但6月和7月的放松限制帶來了消費模式的巨大變化。


In the first two weeks of August, consumer spending, including leisure, was about 7 per cent higher than during the same period one year earlier, said Fable Data, which collates information across many different forms of electronic payment.

整理多種電子支付形式信息的數據公司Fable Data表示,8月份前兩周,包括休閑活動在內的消費者支出較上年同期增長約7%。

More meals have been bought in pubs and restaurants due to the government’s “eat out to help out” discount scheme that runs through August, said Avinash Srinivasan, analyst at Fable Data.

Fable Data公司的分析師阿維納什·斯里尼瓦桑表示,由于政府的“在外就餐幫經濟”(eat out to help out)折扣計劃持續至8月份,在酒吧和餐廳購買的膳食數量有所增加。

“We have clearly seen an improvement [in total spending] over the past month,” he added.

他補充說:“過去一個月,我們明顯看到(總支出)有所改善?!?


While the easing of lockdown restrictions has prompted a sharp rise in consumer spending, third-quarter GDP should also be boosted by the proposed reopening of schools across much of the UK in September.

盡管放松封鎖限制促使消費者支出大幅上升,但英國大部分地區9月份重新開學的計劃,也應該會提振第三季度GDP。



These adjustments are expected to boost the monthly GDP growth figures for July and August by about 2.5 percentage points.

預計這些調整將使7月和8月的月度GDP增幅提高約2.5個百分點。

Recommended Pandemic shows US must make vital products at home Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London, said: “One key reason the UK’s economic performance appeared worse than other countries is that the ONS has done a better job of estimating the fall in education outputs in the second quarter. That means output will automatically bounce back.”

Recommended Pandemic告訴我們必須在國內生產重要產品,倫敦國王學院的經濟學教授喬納森·波特斯說:“英國經濟表現似乎不如其他國家的一個關鍵原因在于,英國國家統計局在估算第二季度教育產出降幅方面更加真實。這意味著(學校開放后)產出將自動反彈?!?

GDP growth in the third quarter could also potentially benefit from a rebound in the health sector. It shrank in the second quarter, partly reflecting how hospitals cancelled routine operations to focus on treatment of Covid-19 patients.

第三季度GDP的增長也可能得益于衛生領域的反彈。第二季度出現萎縮,部分原因在于醫院取消了常規手術,以集中精力治療新冠肺炎患者。

But the scale of the boost is unclear, and some economists think that the ONS overestimated the decline in output in the education and health sectors in the second quarter.

但刺激的規模尚不清楚,一些經濟學家認為,英國國家統計局高估了第二季度教育和衛生部門產出的下降。

Andrew Sentance, adviser to Cambridge Econometrics, a consultancy, said: “The ONS has not allowed for the fact that activities have had to be adapted to changing circumstances. So the [statisticians] have grossly over-egged the fall in output in the second quarter.”

咨詢機構劍橋計量經濟學會的顧問安德魯·森泰斯表示:“英國國家統計局沒有考慮到這樣一個事實,即經濟活動必須適應不斷變化的環境。所以統計學家們過分夸大了第二季度產出的下降?!?

The July and August GDP figures, released in September and October, could well provide some relief for the government, currently reeling from the secondary school results fiasco in England.

在9月和10月將發布的7月和8月的GDP數據可能會給政府帶來些許安慰,目前政府正因英國“第二學期”的慘烈考分而步履蹣跚。

As Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane has said repeatedly, GDP data containing better economic news might encourage more consumers to spend.

正如英國央行首席經濟學家安迪·霍爾丹反復表示的那樣,包含較好經濟消息的GDP數據可能會鼓勵更多消費者支出。


Line chart of Annual spending change by week (%) showing Some areas of spending have improved rapidly in recent weeks

以周為單位的年度支出變化折線圖(%)顯示了最近幾周某些領域的支出增長迅速

But the anticipated big rebound in third-quarter GDP will not be sufficient to resolve lingering doubts about Britain’s economic strength.

但預期的第三季度GDP大幅反彈,將不足以消除對英國經濟實力的持續疑慮。

Several factors risk holding back the recovery, led by the wind down of the government’s furlough scheme and the fact many business activities are not fully viable while the virus persists.

有幾個因素可能阻礙經濟復蘇,首當其沖的是政府的休假計劃逐漸結束,以及在病毒持續存在的情況下,許多商業活動都無法完全支撐下去。

Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that Britain’s long-term economic recovery will be much more difficult after a stunning third quarter.

萬神殿宏觀經濟公司的經濟學家塞繆爾·托姆斯表示,在經歷了令人震驚的第三季度(經濟增長)之后,英國經濟的長期復蘇將會更加困難。

“The economy’s high reliance on consumer services and the impending withdrawal of government support for the labour market suggests that the level of GDP will track a lower path than in most other economies going forwards,” he added.

他補充稱:“英國經濟對消費服務的高度依賴,以及政府即將撤銷對勞動力市場的支持,表明未來英國GDP水平將低于多數其它經濟體?!?br />